October 17, 2016

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey is determined to be part of the operation to capture Mosul, as well as in possible talks on the city’s future.

The Associated Press reports that Erdogan has reiterated Turkey’s concerns that the operation could lead to sectarian clashes. He also maintained that efforts in Iraq to keep Turkey away from the Mosul offensive were linked to Ankara’s efforts to prevent any possible demographic change in the region.

Turkey has been warning about possible sectarian clashes in Mosul if the majority Sunni region were placed under Shiite militia control. Erdogan says that once Mosul is liberated, Turkey cannot allow “a Sunni-Shiite strife” in the city.

He insisted Turkey “will be in the (Mosul) operation and we will be at the table. It is not possible for us to stay outside.”

A defeat in Mosul would be a massive ideological blow to the Islamic State’s ideology, with the city representing the heart of the caliphate that the group declared in the region two years ago, according to one terrorism expert.

Dr Natasha Underhill, an expert on terrorism in the Middle East at Nottingham Trent University, said that if the city was recaptured it could spell the beginning of the end for Isis as we know them. She said:

If the campaign to retake Mosul is a success, it would not only be a massive military defeat for IS but more importantly it would be massive blow to its ideological stance. Mosul symbolises the heart of the caliphate for the group and removing this would mark the beginning of the end for a group who is already struggling for survival. The group is no longer the powerhouse that it once appeared and is in fact struggling not only to gain support but to keep the support in place that it currently has.

The international community needs to be extremely careful in how it approaches this campaign, keeping in mind that this is not just a fight for territory, but also a fight for the hearts and minds of those who are the most fragile – the citizens of Iraq. In order for this to be a success there cannot be a repeat of the debacle that followed the 2003 invasion where the US-led coalition were essentially understaffed and unplanned for the scope of instability that would emerge across Iraq. For IS this would almost certainly be the hardest blow and would make it almost impossible for them to continue their propaganda campaign built around their creation of the caliphate.

If Mosul were to be retaken by the allied coalition, a desperate IS may increase its levels of suicide attacks and other such methods to try to show its strength, but in reality the group is already weakened and has made little real ground in the last year. If anything they have been pushed back to levels not seen since its rapid emergence in 2014. It may be the beginning of the end for IS as we know them.

Smoke is rising over Mosul from the artillery and mortar fire and airstrikes from the US-led coalition backing Iraqi and irregular forces’ assault in the city. As these pictures show, the battle is now intensifying for control of the city.

(Source: The Guardian)