Analyst Ilir Kulla gave an interview for daily Standard in which he made an assessment of the three main political forces of Albania, the Socialist Party (SP), the Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI), and the Democratic Party (DP), now that the parliamentary elections are just seven months away. According to Mr. Kulla, no stormy political developments are expected until the New Year, as the focus will be on the partial elections in Kolonja and the results of the report of the Council of Europe which will decide if the EU will open negotiations with Albania or not. Commenting on the main political actors of the country, analyst Kulla made a review of the relations between the two main leaders of the ruling coalition, PM Edi Rama and Speaker Ilir Meta, and insisted that developments will prove his thesis that after 2017 elections, Mr. Meta will be either the Prime Minister or the Opposition Leader. In regards to the strategies of the right-wing opposition to remove PM Rama from power, analyst Kulla said that the boycott of the Parliament cannot achieve this end, on the contrary, it will strengthen the PM’s position.

According to Mr. Kulla, the electoral campaign has already started.

“Let’s just say that the main parties have already started their electoral campaign. Clearly, the opposition has started its engine earlier than the others. This is understandable because it is not in the government and it has more time at its disposal. However, I think that until the New Year, we will see no changes or big movements in the country. We will simply see a verbal debate between the political sides, which will be accompanied by visits in different areas of the country. Two important political events will happen during this period. First, there will be elections in Kolonja which will test the political situation in the south, unlike the elections in Dibra which tested the political situation in the north. Since Erseka leans mainly to the left, the opposition has trusted its race to the candidate of the Agrarian Environmentalist Party (AEP), who is the representative of a left-wing traditional family, the brother of a former socialist lawmaker, hoping that the electorate will vote for him. I think that the elections in Erseka will be a test, but I don’t expect any surprises. Second, there is the issue of opening of EU negotiations. As the PM has made it clear, he will be in Berlin on November 28, despite the fact that there is no simple formula from the time of the declaration of the opening of negotiations until the actual opening of the negotiations. But let’s hope the best for Albania in the EU, despite the fact that I remain very skeptical in regards to the EU enlargement, because of the inner situation of the EU at present,” analyst Kulla said.

Analyst Kulla was asked about the tense political situation between the two main allies of the ruling coalition which was seen during the period before the approval of the judicial reform, and recently about the open electoral lists and law on waste import.

“We must be realistic. The SMI reached a political victory for Albania by passing the constitutional changes with unanimous consensus. Imagine what would have happened if the changes had passed with bought votes. We would be in a very tense political situation. The intervention of the SMI, especially the stance of Mr. Meta during that period, relaxed the situation in the country very much and it gave it a chance for what we are waiting to happen, the opening of EU negotiations. Clearly, the SMI and SP are two different parties, regardless of the fact that they come from the left. The SMI was created 13 years ago. It has matured during the years, both in central and local elections. This is the reason why these two political forces have different views on different issues. After all, this is democracy. There is a plurality of opinions even within the same ruling coalition. The SMI, as well as other parliamentary parties, are willing to listen to the ideas of the public not only for issues such as “imported waste”, but for other daily issues as well, such as education and life in general. The Law on Imported Waste is not just an ideological issue that has to do with being on the left or on the right, but it has to do with the need of companies to invest and keep their industry going, and it has to do with the need of the people to have transparency for what is happening to the environment. There’s nothing strange about the fact that the SMI has opposite ideas with the SP, or with some Ministers of the SP, on such issues as cannabis and imported waste,” Kulla said.

Further on, analyst Kulla said that there are differences between the views of PM Rama and Speaker Meta, and he commented on the statement of SMI’s lawmaker Perparim Spahiu who said that the next PM should be from his political force.

“I think that the SMI was born not to be an addition of another party, because otherwise, this political force would have simply been a faction of the SP since 2003, since the famous November Congress. For this reason, the leaders of the SP of that time disconnected ties with that group of the SP, from which the SMI was formed. History evolved, and some of the people who at that time were exponents against the group which created the SMI, including Ylli Manjani and Luan Rama, are now leaders of this party. And I say this to further expound the thesis that the SMI now has its own electorate, which is verifiable and has been stable in several elections. Therefore, there is no reason for the SMI to become an addition or an extension of another party. And moreover, if three different coalitions would enter the next elections, I think that the electoral result of the SMI would be a big surprise,” Kulla said.

According to analyst Kulla, the SMI will be a much stronger political force after the elections of 2017 and he made a short summery of its history to support his point.

“Everything has a history and every history is linked with the details and reality we live today. All the current political parties, except for the Democratic Party (DP), and all their leaders have a past which is linked with the SP and its leader of that time, Fatos Nano. Edi Rama is a politician who was discovered and supported by Fatos Nano, as is Ilir Meta, or Shpetim Idrizi, or Agron Duka. Vangjel Dule was an ally and friend of Fatos Nano and I believe that even Lulzim Basha, if he had been living in Albania at that time, would have approached the SP. This was the political situation of Albania at that time. Today we are talking about a completely different situation. The SMI has experienced six years in opposition. It has run on its own during the elections of 2005 and 2009. It has been in a coalition with the left wing and the right wing. And in all this, it has given a great example on how to grow after every election. What makes the management of elections as important are: the electoral process and the electoral maps. In the future elections, the parties I just mentioned above will manage the electoral commissions and the electoral administration. They will have their commissioners there, at a time when the other parties will not have them, based on the current law and code. For this reason, the SMI sees the electoral code as a priority, because the discontent that has been seen in past elections would be eliminated in the next elections. In my view, the SP would not have lost elections in 2005 or 2009 if it had made a coalition with the SMI. So, if the SP thinks that it can replace the SMI with a different electorate, such as that of the Party of Justice, Integration and Unity (PJIU), that would be the same mistake as in 2005 and 2009. I am sure that the SMI will get more votes than in the past elections, because this has been the trend from 2005 until the present. What is important is the fact that the SMI is strong in the entire territory of Albania and if it gets the same number of votes it got in 2015, it would be the first political force in many regions. The two main parties at present, the SP and DP, which for the sake of truth tried to get the SMI out of the picture, will become second and third political forces. I don’t believe that it is in the interest of the SP to go towards a divorce with the SMI. It’s clear that a political force which only keeps growing and becoming stronger has the right to demand to have a PM from its ranks. The statement of Ilir Meta issued a few days ago is in the same line with what I have been saying during the last two years: In the 2017 elections, Ilir Meta will either be the PM of Albania or its Opposition Leader,” Kulla said.

Analyst Kulla also said that the DP must not boycott the Parliament because it is not beneficial to the opposition.

“Certainly, the DP has its own right to behave as it pleases politically. But time has shown that boycott does not bring results in its efforts to remove the PM. So I see this more as a pre-electoral debate, but there is no clear strategy behind this stance,” Kulla said.

(Daily Standard, October 29, 2016)