Economic Sentiment Indicator Increases by 8.5 Points in Q3
Albanian Daily News
Published October 15, 2016

Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) continued to improve its trend, rising with 8.5 points during 2016 Q3. Current level of ESI stands at 109.2; 9.2 points above long-term average, the Bank of Albania said. The upward trend of ESI reflected the improvement of Business Confidence in all the sectors of the economy, whilst consumer confidence slightly declined during the quarter under review.

Industry Confidence Indicator (ICI) increased in 2016 Q3, by 8.6 percentage points. This indicator remains above the historic average by 12.2 percentage points. (chart 2). Dynamic of ICI is attributable to the improvement in two component balances: 2 order books (increased by 13.8 percentage points) and production (by 12.4 percentage points). Meanwhile, stock of inventories balance 3 increased by 0.5 percentage points and slightly contributed in curbing ICI's growth.

The balances not included in ICI calculation such as: export order, financial situation, and production expectation for the upcoming quarter, improved in 2016 Q3. Also, capacity utilization rate in industry is assessed about 77.0%, 2.4 percentage points higher compared to the past quarter and 4.8 percentage points above its historic level.

The Construction Confidence Indicator (CCI) continued to grow in Q3. The level CCI was 11.2 percentage points higher compared to the past quarter, standing above its historic level (+4.8 percentage points) for the first time since 2011 Q1. The improved confidence in this sector is attributable to the improvement of the two compound balances: construction activity performance which significantly improved by 15.7 percentage points; and, order books which increased by 5.7 percentage points.

Other balances related to the financial situation, employment and the expectations for the upcoming quarter, improved as well. Businesses report having utilized their production capacity by 69.3%, 1.8 percentage points higher compared to the past quarter and about 4.8 percentage points higher than the historic average.

The Services Confidence Indicator (SCI) continued its upward trend in 2016 Q3. The SCI increased by 3.7 percentage points compared to the past quarter, standing 9.1 percentage points above its historic level.

Trade Confidence Indicator (TCI) rose by 14.2 percentage points in Q3, after the downward trend performance in H1. This strong positive dynamics shifted the indicator above the historic average by 8.5 percentage points. The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) declined by 0.5 percentage points in 2016 Q3, after a slight improvement one quarter earlier. CCI performance remains volatile and the indicator stand by 1.8 percentage points below its historic average. Balances which contributed to the downward side for CCI's value, are related to the questions on income and spending situation (balance fell by 2.8 percentage points) and question on major purchases (the balance fell by 1.3 percentage points).





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